[et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”default” module_alignment=”left” custom_margin=”|36px||36px|false|true” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_row _builder_version=”4.16″ _module_preset=”default” custom_padding=”0px|||||” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”4.16″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.27.5″ _module_preset=”default” border_color_all=”#006399″ global_colors_info=”{}”]<\/p>\n
– 29 January 2026 –<\/p>\n
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[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.27.5″ _module_preset=”default” hover_enabled=”0″ global_colors_info=”{}” sticky_enabled=”0″]We are pleased to introduce a new product \u2013 Obris | Insights<\/span> \u2013 Deeper thinking for global investors. Our flagship newsletter, the Global Investor covers a broad range of topics that reflect the values and strategies of Obris, our members and readers.<\/p>\n Obris | Insights<\/span> will take a deeper dive into relevant topics to produce quality content to educate, stimulate your thinking and help you invest well.<\/p>\n Prediction Markets<\/strong> Such market forecasting has exploded in the past several years as the age-old tech was modernized by blockchain technology.<\/p>\n We offer this Deep Dive to delve into prediction markets and how this ever-expanding set of tools may be useful to investors, and perhaps for those wanting to improve their odds on the betting floor.<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n [\/et_pb_text][et_pb_image src=”https:\/\/obrisinvest.com\/insights\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-2.png” title_text=”image” _builder_version=”4.27.5″ _module_preset=”default” hover_enabled=”0″ global_colors_info=”{}” align=”center” width=”80%” sticky_enabled=”0″][\/et_pb_image][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.27.5″ _module_preset=”default” hover_enabled=”0″ global_colors_info=”{}” sticky_enabled=”0″]<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n On January 3, the Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. forces had captured Venezuelan President Nicol\u00e1s Maduro. Beneath that headline ran a smaller one: an anonymous trader turned roughly $30,000 into more than $400,000 by predicting it. The trade took place on Polymarket, a crypto\u2011based prediction market where participants buy and sell contracts tied to specific, verifiable events.<\/p>\n The story was notable not because someone made a spectacular wager, but because a market\u2014open to anyone willing to risk capital\u2014had priced a geopolitical outcome before it became consensus news. While most observers focused on Maduro\u2019s fate, I was fixated on the mechanism that surfaced the signal: a market that absorbed fragmented information, private conviction, and evolving facts into a single, continuously updated probability.<\/p>\n With that lens in mind, here is what prediction markets are and how they work in practice.<\/p>\n <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n<\/div>\n Prediction markets offer surprisingly accurate results (most of the time). They combine public data, expert knowledge and private insights. They also incentivize accurate disclosure \u2013 people are putting money at risk.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n The most valuable feature is that they are dynamic. Juxtaposed against surveys, reports and other forms of due diligence, prices adjust instantly as new information emerges.<\/p>\n Likewise, prediction markets offer certainty \u2013 not vague statements such as \u201clikely\u201d or \u201cunlikely,\u201d producing numerical probability.<\/p>\n Unlike polls, expert forecasts, or traditional research reports\u2014which are episodic, narrative, and slow to update\u2014prediction markets translate new information into prices immediately, revealing not just what people think, but how strongly they believe it.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n Sports provide a useful analogy for how prediction markets work.<\/p>\n A close friend of mine is an exceptional sports bettor\u2014not because he guesses well, but because he synthesizes vast amounts of data, contextual factors, and experience into probabilistic judgments. Injuries, matchups, form, timing, weather\u2014all of it feeds into his view of likely outcomes.<\/p>\n Prediction markets formalize that same process. Instead of relying on a single analyst, they aggregate the beliefs of thousands of participants, each risking capital based on their own information and conviction. Game outcomes become tradable contracts whose prices reflect the crowd\u2019s assessed probability of each result.<\/p>\n Structurally, these markets resemble betting. Economically, they behave more like financial markets\u2014allowing participants to trade probabilities, not place fixed wagers. In doing so, they often generate more efficient odds than traditional sportsbooks and adapt faster as new information emerges.<\/span><\/div>\n [\/et_pb_text][et_pb_image src=”https:\/\/obrisinvest.com\/insights\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-3.png” title_text=”image” _builder_version=”4.27.5″ _module_preset=”default” hover_enabled=”0″ global_colors_info=”{}” align=”center” sticky_enabled=”0″][\/et_pb_image][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.27.5″ _module_preset=”default” hover_enabled=”0″ global_colors_info=”{}” sticky_enabled=”0″]<\/p>\n The utilization of prediction markets in sports betting has experienced exponential growth in recent years. Since early 2024, the market grew from USD $100 million to $13 billion by the end of 2025.<\/p>\n According to Sportsbook Advisor, Kalshi and Polymarket both quickly added markets tied to sports outcomes like the U.S. Superbowl, FIFA World Cup and professional league futures.<\/p>\n Governments: Why They Watch\u2014and Worry<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n Governments study prediction markets for the same reason investors do: they can surface dispersed information quickly and translate it into probabilistic signals. That\u2019s attractive for policy planning (e.g., gauging election odds, conflict risk, disease spread, or policy\u2011change timing), procurement, and crisis management\u2014areas where traditional intelligence can be slow, siloed, or biased.<\/p>\n At the same time, governments worry about the optics and the incentives. Markets that \u201cprice\u201d sensitive events\u2014terror attacks, leadership changes, sanctions, or military action\u2014can look like they\u2019re monetizing national security, even when the real value is informational.<\/p>\n Legal and regulatory treatment varies across jurisdictions, which shapes liquidity and depth; thin, fragmented venues are more prone to noise and short\u2011term distortions.<\/p>\n For investors, the takeaway is practical: treat government\u2011related markets as early\u2011warning indicators, not verdicts. Focus on changes in implied probabilities around key dates (hearings, central\u2011bank meetings, court rulings, summit deadlines), and map those moves to exposure.<\/p>\n When policy\u2011sensitive markets lurch, ask what new information officials, insiders, or specialists might be reacting to? \u2014 then validate with primary research, local counsel, and scenario analysis.<\/p>\n In short: governments use these markets because they reveal pressure points in real time; they fear them because transparency can constrain policy flexibility. Investors can use that tension to their advantage\u2014listening for signals, pricing the risk, and acting with discipline.<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n <\/p>\n Our discipline is to treat prediction markets not as an alternative to fundamental research or local expertise, but as a real\u2011time overlay\u2014one that stress\u2011tests assumptions, highlights timing risk, and exposes where conventional research may be lagging or conflicted.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Marvin and I are not prone to gambling. We much prefer to stack the odds in our favor, to leave little room to variables and to carefully and thoroughly diminish the potential to fail. This plays out well for our members who invest in Obris deals in that we structure deals in their favor.<\/p>\n Prediction markets have become a phenomenal tool in the world of investing.<\/p>\n When we invest in a company, we are not betting that the company will succeed. Historically, we deploy our finance team to carry out thorough and invasive due diligence.<\/p>\n Before we commit to a prospective portfolio company, we dig deep and search wide to develop a model \u201cprediction\u201d for how we will \u201cwin\u201d \u2013how we will exit the company with a multiple X gain within a reasonable timeframe (typically 3-5 years).<\/p>\n Prediction markets may be used to accurately and dynamically quantify risks \u2013 political, regulatory, geographical, even environmental.<\/span><\/p>\n This is even more useful when access to traditional forms of data are limited or unavailable. For example, this has greatly enhanced how I assess potential opportunities in emerging and frontier markets where data is often sparse.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Of course, any market that claims to aggregate information efficiently also attracts scrutiny\u2014especially around distortion or manipulation.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n <\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n Prediction markets can be nudged\u2014especially in thin or newly created contracts\u2014when a concentrated trader pushes prices with visible size. That risk is most acute when liquidity is low, participation is narrow, or resolution criteria are ambiguous.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Yet because contracts settle to objective outcomes, distortions are typically short\u2011lived: a mispricing invites informed traders to take the other side, forcing prices back toward fundamentals as new information arrives.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Our discipline is practical: treat these markets as signals, not instructions or as places to bet.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n When probabilities move sharply, ask what new information the market might be reacting to? \u2014then cross\u2011check with your research, local intelligence, and scenario models. Even temporary dislocations can be informative, revealing where uncertainty or disagreement is rising most.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n What does this mean for global investors?<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n Simply put \u2013 what does the best-informed crowd think is the probability of X?<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n The outcome does is not automatically binary \u2013 whether you either invest or not. Rather, prediction markets can be utilized to stress test investment models and scenarios. Scenarios can be rewritten to account for risk, timing, and other variables.<\/span><\/div>\n [\/et_pb_text][et_pb_image src=”https:\/\/obrisinvest.com\/insights\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-4.png” title_text=”image” _builder_version=”4.27.5″ _module_preset=”default” hover_enabled=”0″ global_colors_info=”{}” align=”center” width=”81%” sticky_enabled=”0″][\/et_pb_image][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.27.5″ _module_preset=”default” hover_enabled=”0″ global_colors_info=”{}” sticky_enabled=”0″]<\/p>\n You are considering a new investment. After you read the pitch deck, do your research, consult with other prospective investors, and when possible consult with the principals \u2013 consider these steps:<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Step 1: Identify key binary risks \u2013 For each major exposure, ask what single decision or event would materially change the outcome? Examples include court rulings, election results, geopolitical unrest, sanctions imposed, interest rate cuts or hikes\u2026<\/p>\n Step 2: Monitor implied probabilities \u2013 What is the percentage likelihood of an event occurring? Track current probabilities, the direction trends are taking and volatility around key dates. Focus more on change than outcomes \u2013 A move from 15% \u2192<\/span> 30% often matters more than 60% \u2192 65%.<\/p>\n Step 3<\/span>: Translate probabilities into portfolio actions \u2013 this one requires discipline. You will want to create a structured decision-making framework that assigns specific, predetermined responses to different likelihood levels of an event occurring. It translates statistical uncertainty into concrete, actionable steps.<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n [\/et_pb_text][et_pb_image src=”https:\/\/obrisinvest.com\/insights\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-5.png” title_text=”image” _builder_version=”4.27.5″ _module_preset=”default” hover_enabled=”0″ global_colors_info=”{}” align=”center” width=”84%” sticky_enabled=”0″][\/et_pb_image][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.27.5″ _module_preset=”default” hover_enabled=”0″ global_colors_info=”{}” sticky_enabled=”0″]<\/p>\n For example, we put a great deal of energy into planning Obris events. As we scan the world for forthcoming events, we often focus on exotic and promising markets for investment.<\/p>\n We are currently developing the next Obris Meet Up in Indonesia. In late April, we will gather in Jakarta and Bali.<\/p>\n Marvin has spent time in Indonesia, vetting several potential investments. One of our members lived there for decades while involved in Indonesia\u2019s mining industry. Others have visited Jakarta and\/or Bali. I have yet to step foot in this vast and diverse country of more than 17,000 islands.<\/p>\n As part of our initial investigation into Indonesia, I created a prediction market dashboard utilizing one of my favorite AI tools \u2013 it took two minutes to accomplish what has previously occupied hours of research.<\/p>\n I started by creating a macro level country and industry risk assessment. I then drilled into four key industries \u2013 mining, real estate, energy and technology.\u00a0\u00a0I can drill further. I can also have the AI tool update the dashboard on a regular basis to ensure that the data is dynamic.<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n [\/et_pb_text][et_pb_image src=”https:\/\/obrisinvest.com\/insights\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-6.png” title_text=”image” _builder_version=”4.27.5″ _module_preset=”default” hover_enabled=”0″ global_colors_info=”{}” align=”center” width=”84%” sticky_enabled=”0″][\/et_pb_image][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.27.5″ _module_preset=”default” hover_enabled=”0″ global_colors_info=”{}” sticky_enabled=”0″]<\/p>\n
\nPrediction markets have existed for millennia. They began in the 1500s \u2013 over five centuries ago \u2013 evolving from informal betting on papal elections, wars, treaties and royal successions to articulate and accurate forecasting by governments, investors and sports enthusiasts today.<\/p>\n\u201cAnonymous trader turned $30,000 into $400,000 profit <\/span>
by predicting U.S. Capture of Maduro.\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/h6>\n<\/div>\nPrediction markets are financial tools that use market prices
to forecast the likelihood of future events by rewarding accurate
beliefs and penalizing wrong ones.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/h6>\n
Prediction Markets<\/span><\/span><\/strong>
<\/span>Prediction markets are marketplaces where people buy and sell contracts that pay out based on the outcome of a future event. Prices in these markets reflect the collective belief about how likely that event will occur.<\/span>
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<\/span>Markets exist for politics, economics, business, science and technology, sports and entertainment.<\/span>
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<\/span>In simple terms, each contract is tied to a specific, verifiable outcome \u2013 i.e., will the U.S. invade Venezuela and capture Maduro on January 3, 2026. If the event happens, the contract pays holders $1. If it comes to pass, the payout is $0. The current price of the contract demonstrates what the collective market thinks will be the outcome. $.30 gives a 30% chance that the event will occur. <\/span>
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This \u201cwisdom of crowds\u201d effect is why prediction markets are <\/span>
sometimes more accurate than polls or expert forecasts.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/h6>\nPrediction markets are used in sports betting by turning game outcomes
into tradable contracts whose prices reflect the crowd\u2019s assessed probability
of each result. Structurally they resemble betting, but economically they behave
more like financial markets.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/h6>\n<\/div>\n
Sports Betting: A Familiar Analogy<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/div>\nTreat prediction markets as signals, not instructions. <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/h6>\n<\/div>\n
<\/span>The house always wins!<\/span><\/span><\/h6>\n
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